![]() ![]() If it dos head toward the Central Gulf States, including Alabama, heavy rain could be in the offing.īEACHCAST: Showers and thunderstorms look like they will be a fixture along the beautiful beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida this week. Persistent troughiness over the southeastern United States could pull such a feature northward toward the Gulf Coast. It looks like a tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean could close out and become a tropical cyclone by late Friday into early Saturday. It has been a consistent signal of the global models, both in their deterministic runs, and the ensemble members. VOODOO TERRITORY: I guess it technically is weekend territory, but since the forecast is still very uncertain, I will talk about the potential of low pressure developing over the Gulf by next weekend. Temperatures will still be in the 80s by day and near 70F by night. Same for our Thursday and Friday night high school football games. No washouts, however, just keep the rain gear handy. WEEKEND: Next weekend is the fabulous Sidewalk Film Festival and we may all be dodging a few splash and dash showers as we make our way between the film venues across Birmingham. RAINFALL AMOUNTS: Looks like fairly widespread 2-inch rainfall amounts will be common across Central Alabama, with lesser amounts to the north. Lows will be in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. Highs will trend back to the middle and upper 80s. ![]() Wednesday looks like it might be the drier of the three days. This means a little drier for the North, but doses of scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms each day Tuesday through Thursday. MIDWEEK PERIOD: Drier air may push down into the Tennessee Valley starting Tuesday, but it appears that it will have a harder time digging much further into Alabama. Highs may not get out of the upper 70s in some locations tomorrow. It looks like showers and thunderstorms will be fairly numerous across the area tomorrow, diminishing tomorrow evening. Some additional moisture will try to work its way in from the west tomorrow, raising those rain chances even further. START TO THE NEW WORK WEEK: Moisture levels are high across Alabama, with higher than average precipitable water values and high dewpoints at the surface making it feel quite muggy. This trough appeared that it would swing through Alabama tomorrow, but the latest data suggests that it may pass further to our north, keeping our rain chances higher than expected for much of the week ahead. This upper feature is accompanied by a surface low near Chicago with a trailing front that is trying to pass the Missouri Bootheel this morning. ON THE WEATHER MAPS this morning we have an upper-level trough extending from the Great Lakes region back to near Memphis. Look for lows to drop to the 70s areawide. The showers and storms will thin out a bit tonight, but may not completely be gone overnight. Highs this afternoon will be comfortable for this time of year, with middle 80s common. That same storms moved north over the Greater Birmingham Metro area. My house near Acton Road appears to be one of those, picking up around. A little patchy fog is even showing up in spots, especially those that got rain from passing thundershowers yesterday afternoon. Get ready to track some storms.īUT FIRST, FOR YOUR SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy skies greet the day on this late August Sunday. This system could bring heavy rains to parts of Alabama and Georgia as well as the Florida Panhandle. But first, there are other signals in the ensemble data that we could see some close in development over the western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico by late in the week into the weekend. There are some signals that this second system could impact the East Coast of the United States between Florida and North Carolina around Labor Day. The Bermuda Azores High appears that it will allow it to gain enough latitude to miss the Lesser Antilles, but that solution is not poured in concrete for sure. A second tropical wave moving off the coast looks like it could end up being the dominant system. ![]() It appears to have the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone as it moves west-northwestward over the next week. The National Hurricane Center is tracking a strong tropical wave that is now moving off the coast of Africa. It will bring some beneficial rains to South Texas, however.ĮLSEWHERE IN THE TROPICS: It appears that the Atlantic Basin may be awaking from its slumber. It moved into northeastern Mexico overnight. POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 turned out to be low potential despite favorable conditions in the Bay of Campeche. My wife says it is like summer camp for meteorologists. Greetings from beautiful Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania where I get the pleasure of attending the National Weather Association Annual Meeting this week. ![]()
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